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Case 1: No measurement errors ( $ {\sigma _b^2}= 0$)

Equations (36) can be solved in closed form if $ {\sigma _b^2}= 0$. In this case,

$\displaystyle \hat{\phi}_0 = \frac{c_1}{c_0}$       and     $\displaystyle \hat{{\sigma_a^2}}_0 = c_0 \, \left[ 1 - \left(\frac{c_1}{c_0}\right)^2\right],$ (37)

where

$\displaystyle c_m = \frac{1}{N} \sum_{j=1}^{N} y_j \, y_{(j+m) \bmod N}$ (38)

is the barrel autocorrelation of $ \{y_j\}$ at lag $ m$. The associated statistical uncertainties are

$\displaystyle \Delta \hat{\phi}_0 = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{{\sigma_a^2}}_0}{N c_0}}$   ,     and     $\displaystyle \Delta \hat{{\sigma_a^2}}_0 = \hat{{\sigma_a^2}}_0 \, \sqrt{\frac{2}{N}}.$ (39)

In the absence of measurement errors, $ c_0$ and $ c_1$ constitute sufficient statistics for the time series (30) and thus embody all of the information that can be extracted.



David G. Grier 2005-07-18